Friday, August 22, 2014

Lizzy duckface improvement ratio

Avid Kpopalypse readers may remember that a while ago I made a post noting the large amount of duckface in the selcas from Lizzy of Orange Caramel/After School, and I started a petition to encourage Lizzy selca improvement. I felt that as one of k-pop's most fappable ladies, raising the quality of Lizzy selcas by eliminating duckface was an important cause for k-pop fans globally to get behind and support.


I'm sure that you've often wondered "when I fill out an online petition, how much difference am I really making?" - it's certainly a question worth asking in today's connected age where we're constantly told that improving our world is but a simple check-box away.  Using the data collected from the petition, as well as data from Lizzy, it's time to find out - has the situation improved?

At the time of writing, a grand total of 26 people have signed the petition.  That's slightly less than the amount of participation I had hoped for, representing less than 1% of daily traffic to Kpopalypse and Anti Kpop-Fangirl where the links were posted.  However, was 26 people enough to make a difference, and if so, how much difference did it really make?  Let's look at the data.


At the time of writing there are 217 photos and videos on Lizzy's Twitter account.  This includes the 38 photos on Lizzy's Instagram, which were all reposted to Twitter.

The original Lizzy duckface blog post was on March 15, 2014.  Scrolling through the different photos that appeared on Lizzy's Twitter between March 15 2014 and August 23 2014, the ratios are as follows:


Selca creation currently takes up approximately 70% of all Lizzy image-posting activity.  Looking at selca posts alone, the current percentage of Lizzy selcas ruined with butt-ugly duckface posing is sitting at 20.4%.

To know whether the petition has had any effect, positive or negative, we now need to look at the data from before it was posted.  The timeframe from March 15 2014 to August 23 2014 is 162 days, so by taking an equal sample of the 162 days before the petition, and noting any changes in posting habits, we can determine if the Lizzy petition had any effect on selca quality.


The 162 days leading up to the petition take us back to 4th October 2013, and the Twitter activity on Lizzy's account between this date and March 14th 2014 gives us the following result:


Overall ratio of selca activity hasn't changed much, comprising roughly 65% of Lizzy posting activity during this time period.  However, the ratio of horrendous eye-gouging duckface selcas to normal fappable Lizzy selcas is higher, comprising 36.1% of the selca total.


By subtracting the new figure from the older figure, we can observe a 15.7% improvement in Lizzy selca quality from before the petition going live to afterward.  Since 26 people signed the petition, by dividing the improvement percentile by the number of participants we find that that each signature contributed to an improvement factor of just over 0.6%.


If each signature contributes 0.6% improvement, then assuming each signature carries equal effectiveness and there isn't some kind of bell-curve effect happening it would have therefore taken only 167 signatures (rounded up) to gain a 100% improvement rating, thus eliminating duckface from Lizzy selcas completely.

So there you go, folks.  Signing online petitions does really make a difference - a 0.6% difference, in this case.  Clicking any of the following hot and 100% duckface-free Lizzy pictures will take you to the petition if you haven't signed it yet.


Do it, folks - do it for Lizzy.


  1. This was a really interesting article and provided a big insight into a lot of things I didn't know about. I really like how you've articulated everything and...
    Ah who am I kidding? I just fapped to the Lizzy pics and didn't read a single word

  2. When Lizzy first joined AS, I thought that she was such a plain jane, but ever since OC, she's become one of the most attractive members to me. A bit behind Nana and Jooyeon when it comes to conventional attractiveness, but there's something about Lizzy that is very adorable.

  3. the amount of autism in this post is off the charts

    1. Actually the autistic person is going to be the first person who comments to say that my math is wrong.

  4. A prime satirical example of how cause & effect can be interpreted with statistics. haha

    1. Like Korean netizens' classism, my blog posts work on multiple levels.

  5. This site post to much OC stuff.



    For you kpopalypse

  7. Lizzy looks amazing with short hair.


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